By Gordon Hamilton, Vancouver Sun, October 4, 2011
The rapid industrialization of northern B.C. is going to create almost double the demand for electricity estimated by BC Hydro, making it virtually impossible for the province to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets, according to the Canadian Wind Energy Association.
Citing a report to be released today on new industrial demand for electricity, Nicholas Heap, the association's policy manager for B.C., said the pending demand is "quite extraordinary," but much of it is not included in Hydro's December 2010 industrial electricity load forecast. The association is holding its annual convention in Vancouver this week and is focusing on this province's wind power potential.
The association report includes, for the first time, industrial projects that are either underway or sufficiently advanced in planning that they will proceed, something that was not as clear when Hydro released its forecast.
The wind association commissioned the report because of the number of new projects under consideration in the north, from natural gas activities, to mines and liquid natural gas terminals. It examines development in six industrial sectors, all in the north: the Montney, Horn River and Liard/ Cordova natural gas activities, new Liquefied Natural Gas terminals and pipelines, new mines and new plants to produce alternative transportation fuels.
If the industries use fossil fuel rather than electricity to power their growing energy requirements, it would result in an unacceptable increase in greenhouse gases, Heap said.
The province has a legislated goal of reducing greenhouse gases 33 per cent by 2020.
"The kind of energy demand we are looking at is of a size that it would make our greenhouse gas targets impossible to meet if we don't electrify using low-carbon electricity or zero-carbon electricity," Heap said Monday.
The wind association is calling on the B.C. government and Hydro "to do all that is reasonably possible" to encourage electricity use by industry and the extension of transmission lines into the province's north to deliver electricity to industry. Hydro now has one project, the 287-kilovolt Northwest Transmission Line which is to run 344 kilometres north from Terrace along the Highway 37 corridor to Bob Quinn Lake.
The association wants to see a line built in the northeast that would enable wind-powered turbines to deliver electricity to the gas fields, eliminating the need for industry there to use fossil fuel.
B.C. currently has two wind farms producing one per cent of the province's electricity needs, but wind energy is the fast-growing energy sector in Canada, according to the association.
Energy consultant Steve Davis and Associates did the research which identifies likely electricity loads in 2017 and 2025, the years used by Hydro in developing its forecast. Davis concluded additional demand would hit 11,943 gigawatt hours of electricity in 2017 and 23,743 by 2025. Hydro forecasts an additional electricity load of only 5,800 gigawatt hours by 2017 and 6,500 by 2025.
"The result of the study are frankly, more dramatic than we thought they would be when we started out," Heap said.
"The assumption up until now has been that electricity load growth in this province would be modest for the foreseeable future. That's why there was so much emphasis by policy-makers on exports for the past number of years because they didn't see the market growing in B.C.
"What we are finding is that there is a huge amount of electricity load growth and it is coming at us very, very quickly. We are going to have a rapid response."
Heap said the wind association report is conservative on the number of projects; for example, assuming only four of 206 mining projects at various stages of development will actually go ahead by 2017. However, it aggressively estimates the degree to which these new projects will be using electricity, rather than fossil fuel, for the power requirements. For example, it estimates the Montney and Horn River gas activities will use more electrical power than in the Hydro forecast.
Cam Matheson, Hydro's executive director of energy procurement and planning said in an email statement that it will be releasing its next load forecast in 2012 as part of an integrated resource plan.
"The plan is a 20-year, high-level outlook at how to fulfil the province's growing electricity demand through energy conservation and clean energy generation while ensuring a reliable, cost-effective electricity supply.
"We know that forecast expansion in the mining and the oil and gas industry has the potential to significantly increase electricity use in B.C., as a changing and evolving component of the economy. The plan will address this growing need."
ghamilton@vancouversun.com
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Additional Industrial Electricity Load Growth in BC to 2025
Prepared for the Canadian Wind Energy Association
by Steve Davis & Associates Consulting Ltd
