MIRO CERNETIG, Vancouver Sun, April 19, 2010
Premier Gordon Campbell will announce the construction of the massive Site C dam today, a plan not just to erect a $6-billion hydro dam but also make British Columbia self-sufficient in energy and create a multibillion-dollar green-power export industry.
The kilometre-long dam will flood 83 kilometres of the Peace River Valley in northern B.C., destroying farms and forest. Bet on one of the largest environmental backlashes we've seen here in decades.
But the Liberal government has decided the mega-dam must be part of its future green energy strategy: to make B.C. self-sufficient in power and use its surplus, renewable energy to become one of the continent's major exporters of green, clean energy.
But hold on a second. Will that new hydro power really be seen as green?
Although the Site C seems to fit the bill by the old definition -- it will produce electricity with water, not uranium, coal or fossil fuels -- there's no guarantee the rest of the world will agree it's green today. In fact, California, our biggest power export market, already has a regulation in place that rules any power project larger than 30 MW doesn't qualify as green.
Site C -- at 900 MW and enough electricity for 500,000 homes for a century
-- is 30 times that limit.
As it stands, California wouldn't buy power directly from Site C as green energy. That means no extra premium, essential to funding the cost of the dam.
California's position is based on the view that big hydro projects aren't good for the planet, with the degradation of the environment outweighing even the fact the hydro power is created from renewable water resources.
It's a view that's taking hold throughout the western United States.
Up and down the coast, where the big export market lies, the trend is actually to take down massive hydro dams, not put new ones up. In Washington state, $300-million-plus is being spent to take down the 30-metre-high Elwha River dam in Olympic National Park. Another $450 million is likely to be spent dismantling four dams of the Klamath River hydro project that stretches into Oregon and California.
What that means is that under California's current regulations, it's uncertain our biggest export market will even accept big-hydro power in the years ahead, never mind pay us the green premium BC Hydro hopes to get by selling clean hydro power beyond our borders.
Moreover, the Californians are also shaping up as our competition as a green powerhouse.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced in January his state would help fast-track 70,000 MW of California's green energy projects, from solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and small hydro dams. To put that in perspective, that is more than 70 Site C dams. You can bet that the people putting up the billions of dollars for those projects will be lobbying hard to keep that 30 MW limit on green power, to keep out competitors, especially any from Canada.
So, is there a chance that California will change its mind on what's green?
Yes, but it won't happen soon and it will depend on some very shrewd, long-term negotiating on B.C.'s part.
The first thing that needs doing is to somehow convince California to rethink its definition of what constitutes green power. That will mean asking it to be flexible on its 30 MW cut-off on our hydro, and to reconsider B.C.'s growing run-of-the river projects that, while often larger than 30 MW, are viewed by the industry and the B.C. government as environmentally benign.
It would be nice to convince California that Site C is green, too. But given the anti-mega-dam sentiment in the U.S., as well as the state's rising protectionist sentiments within the green power industry, that's probably a pipe dream. The only caveat is if climate change accelerates, or California runs into power shortages, the Golden State may be willing to rethink its aversion to big hydro from the north.
In the meantime, that leaves a crucial third gambit for British Columbia to pursue.
The province and BC Hydro will have to convince California and other export markets that B.C. can collect its renewable power in a way that guarantees our exports truly are from the sources they deem green, not just power from the Site C put through transmission lines.
In this scenario, the Site C could theoretically end up being primarily used for domestic energy purposes while other renewable sources of energy
-- wind, biomass and perhaps run-of-the-river hydro -- would be identified as green and funnelled toward export.
It's going to be a tough, decade-long argument to carry.
One might hope Premier Gordon Campbell's warm relationship with Schwarzenegger will help. But don't bet on it.
The Governator isn't running for office again. He's a lame duck, without the power to push this vital piece of business forward for British Columbia. If, that is, you believe he ever wanted to take on his state's powerful energy and environmental lobbies on our behalf.
mcernetig@vancouversun.com
